Strengthening the Resilience of Dubai Households to Climate Change Through Risk Assessment and Behaviour Change Adaptation Measures

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Dr. Adam Fenech

Provost of Research, Canadian University Dubai

"Over three decades in applied climate science, I’ve learned that the most powerful innovations are the ones households can actually use. This project lets me bring cutting-edge forecasting and practical, community-tested tools together—translating complex risks into clear choices about heat, rain, and dust, equipping families with simple steps that work, and giving city leaders the evidence to invest smarter for the long run."

Strengthening the Resilience of Households to Climate Change through Risk Assessment and Behaviour-Change Measures.This project develops, validates, and deploys an integrated climate-resilience framework tailored to hyper-arid, rapidly urbanizing settings such as Dubai. It fuses high-resolution climate modelling with artificial intelligence, socio-economic vulnerability analysis, and behavioural science to generate decision-ready intelligence and household-level adaptation. Technically, the work unifies historical observations, real-time weather data, and future global climate scenarios within a hybrid architecture: physics-based models are bias-corrected and downscaled using modern artificial intelligence to achieve neighbourhood-scale predictions of extremes (heat, intense rainfall, dust/wind) with improved spatial–temporal skill. These hazard outputs feed a multi-dimensional Climate Risk Matrix that overlays exposure and vulnerability indicators across sectors such as households, infrastructure, energy, health, and the economy, supporting prioritization of interventions. On the knowledge translation side, the project codesigns a user-centred Decision-Support Platform and a Household Adaptation Support Toolkit that convert complex forecasts into practical choices for planners, emergency managers, and residents. A complementary AI-supported behaviour-change program that is grounded in a formal behavioural diagnosis and segmentation delivers multilingual, culturally relevant interventions (e.g., adaptive messaging, digital nudges, chatbots) to raise risk literacy and accelerate protective actions (water/energy conservation, heat-health practices, flood preparedness). Outcomes include: (i) fine-resolution climate projection maps and a validated predictive system; (ii) a risk matrix linking the likelihood and consequence of hazards to socio-economic sensitivity; (iii) operational toolkits and dashboards; (iv) peer-reviewed publications and policy briefs; and (v) capacity building through workshops and student engagement. Strategically, the program aligns with research and innovation priorities in climate resilience, AI integration, and sustainable urban development. It advances mature, operational deliverables over a three-year horizon, enabling earlier warnings, targeted investments, and measurable reductions in household risk. While optimized for local conditions, the methods and tools are deliberately transferable to other arid and climate-sensitive regions, positioning the host institution and partners to contribute a scalable model for climate-smart urban governance and everyday resilience.